CNN bunch of morons, can’t read their own poll
New rule which really shouldnt be a rule at all because its so obvious: If you can’t read/understand/present your own poll YOU DON”T GET TO CALL YOURSELF “THE BEST POLITICAL TEAM”. Hear me CNN, you idiots? Nate Silver points to this gem of an article in which CNN talks about a poll they commissioned. The article is titled: “New CNN Poll: Obama, McCain in a statistical dead heat”. It reads:
With the dust having finally settled after the prolonged Democratic presidential primary, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a statistical dead heat in the race for the White House.
With just over four months remaining until voters weigh in at the polls, the new survey out Tuesday indicates Obama holds a narrow 5-point advantage among registered voters nationwide over the Arizona senator, 50 percent to 45 percent. That represents little change from a similar poll one month ago, when the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee held a 46-43 percent edge over McCain.
CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes Tuesday’s survey confirms what a string of national polls released this month have shown: Obama holds a slight advantage over McCain, though not a big enough one to constitute a statistical lead.
I’ve helpful put into bold the parts citing how “close” the race is. Here’s a key point though, from the bottom of the article:
The poll, conducted June 26-29, surveyed 906 registered voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
See that? The margin of error in the poll is +/- 3.5 points. And Obama has a 5 point lead. Which means that….Obama’s lead is outside of the margin of error. WHICH MEANS ITS NOT A DEAD HEAT, ITS JUST AN F’ING LEAD CNN. Nate goes on to point out that National Council On Public Polls (who I’ll admit to being unfamiliar with) has spoken on this subject:
Certainly, if the gap between the two candidates is less than the sampling error margin, you should not say that one candidate is ahead of the other. You can say the race is “close,” the race is “roughly even,” or there is “little difference between the candidates.” But it should not be called a “dead heat” unless the candidates are tied with the same percentages. And it certainly is not a “statistical tie” unless both candidates have the same exact percentages.
And just as certainly, when the gap between the two candidates is equal to or more than twice the error margin – 6 percentage points in our example – and if there are only two candidates and no undecided voters, you can say with confidence that the poll says Candidate A is clearly leading Candidate B.
When the gap between the two candidates is more than the error margin but less than twice the error margin, you should say that Candidate A “is ahead,” “has an advantage” or “holds an edge.” The story should mention that there is a small possibility that Candidate B is ahead of Candidate A.
Yeah, “Best Political Team” my ass. Morons.
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