Ezra’s not feeling the convention:
The first two days of the convention were wasted, or seemed so from my vantage point. Tonight, Joe Biden will rip into McCain. And tomorrow, Obama will do whatever he does. Then on Friday, at noon, John McCain will announce his vice presidential nominee, strangling any convention bounce in the crib. Then the Republican Convention will begin, and you can be assured that they will remember Barack Obama’s name. They will remember how to make fun of him, how to mock his celebrity and inexperience. And the media will not cover Ron Paul’s protesters with the vigor or attention they gave to Hillary Clinton’s diehards. Instead, they will cover four days of straight attacks on Barack Obama, culminating with a grave address about sacrifice and service from John McCain. And unless Obama’s convention makes a sharp turn tonight and tomorrow, they will have done nothing to soften the impact of these attacks and themes or create a counternarrative for the media to cover.
This all sounds pretty plausible to me as one possible way things might go but I can almost just as easily see a different, more optimistic version of events. Tonight Biden and Clinton rip into McCain, with Biden’s attack being even more effective as he actually was/is friend’s with McCain (”This isn’t the man I know…”). Then tomorrow night Obama gives a great speech, in front of 80,000 people, hopefully at the very least bringing back into the fold disgruntled Clinton supporters. I’m not sure I expect a big bounce from the convention but as Marc Ambinder points out, this convention is about solidifying support amongst Democrats. Obama only gets the support of 80% of Dems right now, surely that number will rise after the convention.
And as for McCain’s VP pick straggling momentum, eh, maybe. Depends on who he picks of course but I’m thinking McCain’s pick is mostly going to be met with indifference. Tim Pawlenty? Boring. Romney? No one likes him. Giuliani? People like him less then Romney. Now Lieberman would be interesting but thats not going to happen. I just don’t see his pick having anywhere near the interest levels of Obama’s.
Now I agree that the Republican Convention is going to be attack Obama all the time. And I think thats going to be effective. But I think its just as likely that the Democrats and Obama are going to have plenty of opportunities to tie McCain to Bush and the last 8 years. President Bush and Cheney are both speaking, you don’t think those are wasted nights for McCain, when millions of Americans get to watch the people they have given such low approval ratings to endorse McCain? I almost feel as though the opportunities to attack/weaken McCain are greater during the GOP convention. As for McCain’s own speech , the guy’s an awful public speaker and now he’ll have an opportunity to flash those awkward grins to millions of people.
Yes, the crappy media won’t cover the Ron Paul supporters as much as they covered the few Clinton supporters but the Paul supporters are truly larger and, perhaps more importantly, smarter. You just know the Paul people are going to come up with something, be it hand-gliders, blimps or what have you, to draw attention to themselves.
So there you have it, my alternative vision to Ezra’s. I’m not sure if that will happen, and its probably way too optimistic, but I hope its what will happen. And it just as easily could.